Weather and crops

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has revised down its forecasts for 2007-08 winter crops due to the continuation of the drought. The winter wheat crop output is now forecast at 12.1 million tonnes, compared with a previous estimate of 15.5 million tonnes. Barley is forecast at five million tonnes, against a previous prediction of 5.9 million tonnes. This year's canola crop is now estimated at 900,000 tonnes, versus 1.1 million tonnes previously. ABARE said with the exception of Queensland, pockets of northern NSW and southern Western Australia, rainfall during the critical September-October period had been below to very much below average throughout the grains belt. NSW had been particularly dry, with many regions recording their lowest September-October rainfall on record. "This lack of rainfall, combined with hotter than average daytime temperatures and strong winds, has led to the rapid deterioration of crop yield potential and in many areas has resulted in total crop failure,". Although the combined total of 18 million tonnes for the three major crops is about 42 per cent below the five-year average, it is still about four million tonnes above 2006-07 production.A significant number of winter cereal crops had also been cut for hay in an attempt to recoup some planting costs. Mr Glyde said livestock had also been affected by the deterioration in seasonal conditions, with farmers continuing to reduce stock numbers."High yardings of cattle, sheep and lambs during September and the first three weeks of October have led to lower saleyard prices,". The rainfall outlook for summer crop production was promising.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has indicated in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook for the November-January period that there is a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward above-average rainfall for southern Queensland and northern NSW